It is not difficult to predict that in the future
Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2025 4:40 am
The fundamental reason why it is so difficult to deal with is the loose liquidity market environment created by the continued downward trend in interest rates. In order to better boost the economy, regulators have resisted various external pressures and continuously strived to create a lowinterest rate monetary environment in the country. Even now, expectations for continued easing of "timely interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts" remain strong.
During this period, various institutions did obtain a large amount of lowcost liquidity, but due to the market's lack of confidence in the future economic recovery, a considerable portion of this liquidity did not go to where it should go operations, investment expansion. Instead, it actively poured into the treasury bond market and "idled" crazily, eventually forming a group and pushing up longterm bond prices, leading to a rare bull market in bonds.
This is not the situation that the regulators want to see. Whether it is the iran phone number list massive amount of "idle" funds that will seriously affect the effectiveness of economic stimulus policies, or the risk of a sudden collapse caused by institutions' illegal highleverage bond speculation, or the potential risks brought about by a rapid shortterm decline in treasury yields, these are all very serious problems.
Now the 10year Treasury bond yield has fallen to a rare ultralow level of 1.72%. the central bank and relevant departments will most likely introduce more stringent measures.
For example, continuing to borrow from the primary market for selling, adjusting margin, or even adjusting transaction fees are all possible.
This unilateral bond bull market that lasts from the beginning of the year to the end of the year is likely to turn into a boxshaped bull market.
During this period, various institutions did obtain a large amount of lowcost liquidity, but due to the market's lack of confidence in the future economic recovery, a considerable portion of this liquidity did not go to where it should go operations, investment expansion. Instead, it actively poured into the treasury bond market and "idled" crazily, eventually forming a group and pushing up longterm bond prices, leading to a rare bull market in bonds.
This is not the situation that the regulators want to see. Whether it is the iran phone number list massive amount of "idle" funds that will seriously affect the effectiveness of economic stimulus policies, or the risk of a sudden collapse caused by institutions' illegal highleverage bond speculation, or the potential risks brought about by a rapid shortterm decline in treasury yields, these are all very serious problems.
Now the 10year Treasury bond yield has fallen to a rare ultralow level of 1.72%. the central bank and relevant departments will most likely introduce more stringent measures.
For example, continuing to borrow from the primary market for selling, adjusting margin, or even adjusting transaction fees are all possible.
This unilateral bond bull market that lasts from the beginning of the year to the end of the year is likely to turn into a boxshaped bull market.