First of all, demography began to bite harder. Starting from the mid-2010s, the number of employed people at young ages began to decline. The pension reform, associated with increasing the working age, could not solve this problem. But it could not radically solve the problem of employment of the elderly either - their level of involvement in economic activity was already quite high, and problems with health and access to good jobs prevented further increase in employment. The number of employed people reached its limit, and its structure, at least in terms of age, was becoming less and less favorable for the economy.
The beginning of the collapse luxembourg whatsapp number database in employment at younger working ages, employers saving on wages, the need for structural maneuvering - all this together began to create new tension in the labor market. No longer with unemployment, but with what can be called a "shortage" of labor. I put "shortage" in quotes, since this phenomenon does not fit well with the exceptional flexibility of Russian wages. Economists define such a shortage as the impossibility of buying something today at the same price as yesterday.
But where does the additional demand come from? Firstly, it is always necessary to replace those who have left. And people leave for various reasons: it is simply a change of job, and retirement, and emigration, and then there is mobilization. Nobody has cancelled the aging of the workforce either. Secondly, structural changes require prompt redistribution of workers - it is necessary to saturate the niches of rapid production growth, and this includes import substitution and an increase in the output of defense products.
Additional workers must be found somewhere, and since a significant part of the increased demand for labor is connected with the growth of state defense orders, delay is punishable and the growth in the number of vacancies may significantly outpace the growth in the number of employees hired. The difference between them is expressed in hundreds of thousands.
Unavailable solutions
What about the additional labor supply? There is virtually none. And there won’t be any. Employment levels in all demographic groups are at the limit of what is possible. Forecasts promise further — and very significant — compression of youth cohorts in the workforce. There remain such marginal sources for the labor market: students, migrants, prisoners. Each of these groups has its own problems. Some holes can be temporarily patched with them, but none of these groups are suitable for serious and responsible work. People with high qualifications, long-term motivation and responsibility are needed. Another hidden source is the release of workers in places where they are currently redundant or less effective, and their hiring for these vacancies. This reveals a whole series of new problems, of which we will note only two. Firstly, those fired will have one set of skills, while others are needed. This means that expensive retraining of adults is necessary, which no one knows how to do. Secondly, how can you fire them if they don’t leave themselves? The costs of layoffs are high, and employers are used to the fact that it is better not to touch anything here. So this source is not very accessible either.